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Field 2: Statistically Generated Performance Range/Actual Performance


What You Are Looking At

This chart shows the relationship between the actual performance of students in this school – expressed as the percentage of students who met the standard on the state tests – and the performance range of similar students statewide given particular characteristics. (See below for an explanation of this research tool.)

The question mark: Participation in the assessments is expected to be 100% unless a child is specifically exempted by an Individual Education Plan (IEP) or another valid, clearly defined reason such as prolonged illness. This year when a school’s participation rate fell below 80% of the eligible students, a question mark appears on the bar indicating that the data might be unreliable because of the large number of students who did not take the test.

What You Are Looking For

In this first year of using the statistical model, you are hoping to see the school’s students performing at or above the performance range of similar students statewide. Critical Note Rhode Island’s goal is for all students to become proficient in all subjects. This computer generated model is not a standard and performing as well or even better than similar students across the state is only the beginning of a journey towards full proficiency. Over time, as the schools themselves improve, the computer-generated ranges will themselves rise. This model helps us understand that schools do not start on a level playing field; some will need more time, specialists, resources or any number of things to help all of their children reach proficiency. Schools which are under-performing according to the model over multiple years are signaling the need for intervention of some kind.

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Statistically Generated Performance Models

In recent years, educational researchers have begun building statistically generated models which can calculate what results schools are likely to achieve when taking into consideration the characteristics of their student body. The point of these models is to establish an achievement benchmark that acknowledges the challenges that can affect children’s readiness to learn. The public tends to compare high performing schools with low performing schools without considering differences in student characteristics. In fact, student composition impacts heavily on the performance of the school itself. These statistical models provide equitable and practical benchmarks against which to measure actual achievement. For over 30 years, researchers have known that the achievement results of different sets of students, such as those from different schools, vary in association with several specific key factors, including:

• Poverty (by far the strongest predictor of student achievement)

• Non-English speaking background

• Educational background of the child’s mother

• Having special learning needs, and

• Having a minority/racial group identity

While individuals with one or more of these characteristics can and do perform well on state assessments, the overwhelming majority tend to perform less well than children who do not have these characteristics. There are many reasons for these
historic patterns of achievement. They include such things as school expectations, inadequate funding and support to the schools these children attend, the quality of social services offered to students, the availability of flexible grouping and
instruction geared to multiple learning styles and others.

The Rhode Island Model

Rhode Island researchers have created a model which considers the above characteristics. Because RI is such a small state, the entire student body of over 150,000 students served as a context from which the test and grade specific ranges were derived. Thus, groups of students within a school were compared with similar groups of students statewide; schools are not themselves sorted for comparisons. Because computer-generated ranges change by test – the writing assessment is more strongly affected by language minority status, for example – the set of predictions changes from test to test.

Over time, the model will evolve and become more precise, but the above characteristics will always be the foundation since, for example, poverty alone accounts for at least one-third of the variation in student achievement scores across groups of students. These models predict only for groups of students with similar characteristics; they can not predict any individual student’s achievement.

NOTE A technical description of this model is available upon request from the RIDE Public Information Office.

Special to the District and State Templates

At the district and state levels, tables are laid out by test indicating the total number of schools whose proportions of students meeting the standards are smaller, comparable and larger than the statistically generated range.


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